"There are 47% of the people who will vote for the President no matter what.....who are dependent on government, who believe they are victims...47% of Americans pay no income tax." Mitt Romney (1)

If Romney is right, all Obama needs to win a 51% share of the popular vote is to  gain the support of  about 4%  of people who do pay federal income tax. With a mere 10% of taxpayers, Obama  gets a  57%  landslide victory!

The good news for Romney is that about a third of voters earning less than $24,000 per year are for Romney, and  he  leads among voters over 65,  most of whom rely on Social Security  for their income.  Since all workers pay FICA   (Social Security) tax, only about  18% of households pay no federal tax at  all (2).    

The question  is, "What would Romney, as president, do about  it?"

He has proposed a 20% tax cut for all Americans, which would reduce federal revenues about 20%, but  he would make up for the loss by "closing loopholes", which means  ending deductions.  He has refused to disclose  which deductions to end before the election, so as not to lose the votes of those who now take these deductions.  If Romney wins the presidency, it is extremely unlikely that any loopholes will be closed, since doing so would raise taxes on some people, and most Republican congressmen have signed a pledge not to raise taxes under any circumstances, which would include a Romney victory.   

 So, the most likely  fiscal consequence of  Mitt Romney  becoming President ( as  improbable as that would be,  using  his own estimate of Obama's base of support)  is that the tax cuts would pass and  the loopholes would remain, so  federal revenues would drop.  He would try to compensate for this decline in revenue by  reducing   funding for programs that encourage recipients to stay dependent upon government, such as  Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. food stamps and the like.   If the GOP wins control of both houses of Congress in November, these cuts may pass, although  even some Republicans may balk at cutting Social Security and Medicare,  both of which are very important to large groups of  senior voters.

Although the quote cited above was  not from a public speech, but a private  meeting with big donors,  it is good that  we  now have an unscripted look at how Mitt Romney really feels about  government programs and those who  depend upon them.  Even without intending to do so, he may  have helped  his prediction of Obama's  vote come true.

Gerald S Glazer

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(1) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Sept. 19, 2012, page 16A  (from Mother Jones magazine.) 

(2) Christian Schneider, same issue, page 17A.